Monday, April 8, 2013

Gauging success -- calibration

Again, Supernationals is grueling.  Let me compare outcomes at State. At State, top teams expect to sweep our opponents at least once or twice.  Every player on the team expects to win more often than they lose, and one or more players are likely to win every game they play.   At nationals, there will be, at most, one undefeated contestant-- this year, even the overall champion had one draw.  Our top four players put together won exactly half of their games. But, on paper, compared to the ratings of other competitors, our players outplayed their ratings--and wound up, as team, ahead of the majority of the other top players in the United States.
Whoa.

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